For help with a story or to find an expert: 0114 225 2811
Issued:18/04/12
Team GB is on course for its best performance in an Olympic Games since 1908 according to the sports economists who came closer than anyone else to predicting China's medals' haul in Beijing four years ago.
Using their unique prediction model, experts from the Sport Industry Research Centre (SIRC) at Sheffield Hallam University predict Team GB will win 27 gold medals at London 2012 and 56 medals in total.
The team also predicts Team GB will win medals in 15 sports and across 18 disciplines - a wider range of success since winning medals in 23 of the 24 sports contested in 1908.
Sheffield Hallam's Olympic forecasters were just five gold medals out in their Beijing 2008 predictions, when they forecast that China would win 46 gold medals - the hosts actually won 51.
And now they have now used similar calculations - based on regression analysis and the host nation effect - to come up with their predictions for London 2012.
Professor Simon Shibli, co-director of SIRC, said: "Host nation advantage provides a quantifiable benefit, which will result in a larger medals' haul than if the Olympics were held elsewhere. Influences such as home crowd support, familiarity with venues, the right to contest more events and enhanced scores in subjectively judged sports, such as gymnastics and diving, will positively affect Team GB's performance.
Click to view the image
"Should our forecasts prove to be accurate, then on all four measures 2012 will be Great Britain's best performance in the Olympic Games since it was the host nation in 1908. Winning 27 gold medals will comfortably secure the targeted fourth place in the medals' table and also give Team GB a fighting chance for third place."
Report co-author Professor Chris Gratton added: "Team GB's success will be further evidence that elite sport performance is a managed phenomenon, rather than simply being reliant on a country's demographic and economic dimensions. The positive host nation effect identified indicates that winning the rights to host the games in the first place is an integral part of this management."
For press information contact: Laurie Harvey on 0114 225 2621 or email pressoffice@shu.ac.uk
