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Forecasting

Deliverables

To estimate the participation growth potential of sport and recreational activities from 2007 to 2013 and 2020.

Objectives

  • forecast future participation in sport and recreational activities
  • assess the contribution of national governing bodies of sport (NGBs) to any forecasted changes.

Tasks

  • update the Henley Centre's work of 2003 identifying key drivers of change in sport, by reference to recent literature and consultation with experts
  • forecast future participation in sport and recreational activities, by using General Household Survey and Active People survey data to establish trends and then extrapolating these to the forecast dates. Consultation with experts tested the appropriateness of these forecasts
  • assess the influence of NGBs by analysis of relevant questions in the 2002 General Household Survey and by consultation with experts

Impact

By providing reliable forecasts of participation in a range of different sports and recreational activities, this evidence helped Sport England to both target appropriate sports with initiatives to grow their participation, and gauge how much help NGBs would be in delivering these initiatives and participation targets.

Funder

Sport England

Dates

July - August 2007

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